The UK’s cereal and oilseed harvest is on course to be the worst since national yields were first recorded in 1984, potentially wiping some £390m off arable farmers’ turnover.
According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the exceptionally dry and hot spring and summer weather had impacted crops more severely than initially forecast, diminishing total potential yield by around 2.5m tonnes.
With just over half the UK wheat crop harvested by the end of July, and 95% of the winter barley crop, provisional yield estimates produced by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) suggest a yield figure of 6.8t/ha for both.
Combined with oilseed rape (which has seen slightly better yields), the total UK harvest is now forecast at 19.5m tonnes.
Based on earlier harvest estimates from the USDA and EU cereals body Coceral, that suggests a loss of potential revenue of between £293m and £390m due to the drought.
Tom Lancaster, ECIU land, food and farming analyst, said farmers were “facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row” and that UK farming was in danger of entering a “climate doom loop”.
“Without reducing emissions to net zero, to bring the climate back into balance, conditions will continue to deteriorate,” he warned.
